Climate Crisis as a Historical Challenge

Anthropocene: We Have Changed the Planet

The Earth has warmed by 1.1°C since the pre-industrial era. It sounds small — but this is a global average. The difference between the current temperature and that of the Ice Age is about 5°C. One more degree — and we will enter a temperature range the planet has not seen for 3 million years.

CO₂ concentration has reached 421 ppm — a level not seen for 3 million years. This is not a "natural cycle": the rate of change is 100 times faster than any natural climate changes in Earth's history. The cause is human activity — this is scientific consensus (97% of climatologists).

Political Economy of the Climate Crisis

Why do CO₂ emissions continue to grow after 30 years of negotiations? The problem is collective action: the benefits of reducing emissions are global and long-term, the costs are local and short-term. No country wants to bear the costs while others do not.

Interests of fossil fuels: a global industry with a turnover of trillions of dollars and enormous political influence. Disinformation campaigns by oil companies (similar to those of tobacco companies) are documented.

Inequality in vulnerability: wealthy countries, which historically created the crisis, are better protected from its consequences. Poor countries, which have hardly contributed to creating the problem, suffer first (floods in Bangladesh, droughts in the Sahel, sea level rise on Pacific islands).

Responses and Their Limitations

The Paris Agreement (2015): the goal is to keep warming below 2°C (ideally 1.5°C). All countries signed. The problem: the commitments taken are voluntary and insufficient. Even if fulfilled — warming of 2.7°C by 2100.

Technologies: solar and wind power have become 90% cheaper in 10 years. Electric vehicles are reaching price parity with gasoline-powered ones. This is real progress. But systemic changes (cities, agriculture, industry) are slower.

Climate justice: who pays for the "Green transition"? Wealthy countries pledged to provide $100 billion annually to developing countries — they did not fulfill the promise. This is not simply about money; it is a question of trust and international order.

History does not have a "correct" ending. The climate crisis is the first in history where humanity has scientific knowledge of a catastrophe that has not yet occurred, and the opportunity to prevent it. Whether it will take advantage — is an open question.

Question for reflection: The climate crisis is a "tragedy of the commons" on a planetary scale. Which coordination mechanisms (regulation, markets, cultural norms) work most effectively for solving such problems?