The Future of the Global Order

The Future of the Global Order
The world order that took shape after World War II, and especially after the Cold War, is undergoing profound transformation. What awaits the global economy and politics? What scenarios are possible?

Crisis of the Liberal Order

The postwar liberal international order is in question:

What is the liberal order?

• Open markets, free trade
• International institutions (UN, WTO, IMF)
• Rule of law in international relations
• Spreading democracy and human rights
• American leadership as the guarantor

Symptoms of crisis:

• The rise of China as a systemic competitor
• Revisionism by Russia
• Retreat of the US from leadership (Trump)
• Internal crisis—populism, polarization
• Inability of institutions to solve problems (climate, pandemics)

US–China Rivalry

The central geopolitical plot of the 21st century:

China’s rise. Since the 1980s—unprecedented growth. GDP at PPP par with the US. Technological ambitions. Belt and Road Initiative. Modernization of the military.

American response:

• Trade war
• Technological confrontation (Huawei, semiconductors)
• Strengthening alliances in Asia (AUKUS, Quad)
• Competition within institutions

“Thucydides’ Trap.” Graham Allison: when a rising power threatens the status of the incumbent, there is a high risk of war. Of 16 historical cases—12 ended in war.

Scenarios:

• New Cold War—division into blocs
• Hot conflict (Taiwan?)
• Competitive coexistence
• Chinese hegemony

Fragmentation of the World Economy

Economic globalization is being transformed:

Deglobalization?

• Trade grows slower than GDP.
• Reshoring, nearshoring.
• “Strategic autonomy.”

Regionalization. Instead of global integration—regional blocs: North American, European, Asian.

Decoupling. Separation of the US and Chinese economies—especially in technology. Two parallel technological ecosystems?

“Weaponization of interdependence.” Economic ties become a tool of pressure. Sanctions, export controls, financial restrictions.

Global Challenges

The world is facing challenges that require a collective response:

• Climate crisis. A global problem requiring a global solution. The Paris Agreement—not enough. Transformation of energy, economy, and way of life is needed.
• Pandemics. COVID-19 revealed vulnerabilities. The next pandemic is inevitable. The global health system is inadequate.
• Artificial Intelligence. A transformational technology with huge risks. Regulation is lagging. Who controls AI?
• Inequality and migration. Global inequality generates migration pressure. The political response—border closures.

Future Scenarios

What options are possible?

Scenario 1: Restoration of the liberal order. The US maintains leadership, reforms institutions, attracts democracies. China is integrated or contained. Unlikely in pure form.

Scenario 2: Bipolarity. The world divides into American and Chinese blocs. Competition without direct conflict. Dual supply chains, technologies, currencies.

Scenario 3: Multipolarity. Several centers of power—US, China, EU, India, possibly others. Balance of power, shifting coalitions. More flexibility, less stability.

Scenario 4: Global chaos. Institutions collapse, governance is impossible. Conflicts, crises, regression. “New Middle Ages.”

Scenario 5: Global transformation. Crises (climate, pandemics) force new forms of global governance. Transition to a more sustainable and just system. Optimistic, but possible.

The Role of Ideas and Agency

The future is not predetermined:

Structures are important, but not everything. Economic and geopolitical trends create constraints and opportunities. But within these frameworks—there is choice.

Ideas matter. Which ideas will dominate? Neoliberalism has run out. Alternatives? Green New Deal? Global social contract? Authoritarian capitalism?

Political struggle. The future is the result of the contest of interests, ideas, and movements. Civil society, social movements, and political leaders shape the outcome.

Critical crossroads. Historical moments when the choice is especially significant. We may be living through such a moment.

The study of political economy provides tools for understanding these processes and, perhaps, for participating in the shaping of a more just future.