Module XXI·Article III·~5 min read
Due Diligence and Company Valuation
Private Equity
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Due Diligence and Company Valuation
Due Diligence in Private Equity: comprehensive analysis
Due Diligence (DD) is a systematic investigation of a company before investment, allowing confirmation of the investment thesis, identification of risks, and determination of fair value. In PE transactions, DD typically lasts 4–12 weeks and costs $1–5 million for large transactions.
Due Diligence Focus Areas
| Type of DD | Focus | Performer | Typical Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial DD | Market, competition, customers | Strategy consultants (Bain, McKinsey) | $300–800K |
| Financial DD | Earnings quality, working capital | Big 4, specialized firms | $200–500K |
| Legal DD | Contracts, litigation, IP | Law firms | $300–700K |
| Tax DD | Tax risks, structuring | Big 4 tax practice | $100–300K |
| Operational DD | Processes, IT, HR | Operations consultants | $150–400K |
| ESG DD | Environmental, Social, Governance | Specialized consultants | $50–150K |
Commercial Due Diligence
Evaluation of market attractiveness and company’s position:
Key questions:
- Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM): How large is the addressable market?
- Growth rates: What drives growth—volume, price, mix?
- Competitive dynamics: Concentration, barriers to entry, threat of substitution
- Pricing power: Can the company raise prices?
- Customer concentration: Share of top-10 clients
- Retention rates: NRR, churn, customer lifetime value
Red Flags in Commercial DD:
- More than 20% of revenue from a single client
- Declining market share
- Technological disruption in the industry
- Product commoditization
- Regulatory threats
Financial Due Diligence and Quality of Earnings
Quality of Earnings (QoE) — the key product of financial DD, showing the “true” EBITDA of the company:
Normalized EBITDA Adjustments
| Category | Example adjustment | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Non-recurring items | Legal expenses, restructuring costs | Add-back |
| Owner adjustments | Excess owner compensation, related party transactions | Add-back |
| Pro forma adjustments | Full-year effect of acquisitions | Add-back |
| Run-rate synergies | Realized cost savings | Add-back |
| Aggressive revenue recognition | Premature revenue recognition | Deduction |
| Understated expenses | Deferred capex, deferred maintenance | Deduction |
| One-time revenue | Unusual contracts, catch-up payments | Deduction |
Example of QoE bridge:
| Metric | Amount ($M) |
|---|---|
| Reported EBITDA | 50.0 |
| + One-time legal settlement | 2.5 |
| + Former CEO excess compensation | 1.8 |
| + COVID-related costs | 1.2 |
| - Aggressive revenue recognition | (3.0) |
| - Below-market rent (related party) | (0.8) |
| - Deferred maintenance capex | (1.5) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 50.2 |
Working Capital Analysis
A critically important element of financial DD:
| Metric | Formula | What is analyzed |
|---|---|---|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | AR / Revenue × 365 | Trend, comparison with peers, aging |
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) | Inventory / COGS × 365 | Obsolescence risk, turnover |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | AP / COGS × 365 | Sustainability, supplier terms |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | DSO + DIO - DPO | Efficiency, working capital needs |
Net Working Capital Peg
In the SPA (Share Purchase Agreement), a target NWC is set—deviations adjust the purchase price:
- NWC above target → Price increase for seller
- NWC below target → Price decrease / payment to buyer
- Typical mechanism: dollar-for-dollar adjustment
Company Valuation Methods
- DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
Fundamental valuation based on future cash flows:
- FCF projection: 5–10 years detailed projection
- Terminal Value: Gordon Growth or Exit Multiple
- WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital
- Limitations: Sensitivity to assumptions
- LBO Analysis
“How much can a PE fund pay for a target IRR?”:
- Determining maximum entry price at 20% IRR
- Considers debt capacity and exit assumptions
- Practical floor for valuation in the PE context
- Comparable Companies (Trading Comps)
Valuation based on multiples of public peers:
| Multiple | When to use | Typical Range |
|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue | Early-stage, high growth, unprofitable | 1–10x (tech: 5–20x) |
| EV/EBITDA | Mature companies with positive EBITDA | 6–15x |
| EV/EBIT | Capital-intensive industries | 8–18x |
| P/E | Financial firms, stable businesses | 10–25x |
- Precedent Transactions
Multiples of recent M&A deals in the sector:
Advantages:
- Includes control premium
Disadvantages:
- Different deal terms, timing
Control premium: Usually 20–40% above trading value
Key metrics by sector
| Sector | Key metric | Typical multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Software/SaaS | ARR, NRR, Rule of 40 | 8–15x ARR |
| Healthcare Services | EBITDA, same-store growth | 10–14x EBITDA |
| Industrial | EBITDA, backlog | 7–10x EBITDA |
| Consumer/Retail | EBITDA, comp sales | 6–9x EBITDA |
| Financial Services | P/E, P/Book | 10–15x P/E |
| Real Estate | NOI, Cap Rate | 15–25x NOI |
Red Flags Checklist
| Area | Red Flag | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Financial | Significant EBITDA adjustments (>20%) | Deep sustainability analysis |
| Financial | Deteriorating cash conversion | Working capital deep-dive |
| Financial | Related party transactions | Legal review, normalization |
| Commercial | Customer concentration >25% | Customer reference calls |
| Commercial | Declining prices/margins | Competitive analysis |
| Legal | Pending litigation >5% EV | Legal opinion, contingency reserve |
| Tax | Aggressive tax positions | Tax opinion, indemnity |
| Management | High turnover, key person risk | Retention packages, non-competes |
| Operational | Deferred capex, aging equipment | Capex plan, adjustment to price |
| ESG | Environmental liabilities | Environmental assessment, insurance |
DD Timeline and Process
| Week | Activities | Deliverables |
|---|---|---|
| 1–2 | Data room review, initial analysis | Preliminary findings, request list |
| 3–4 | Management presentations, site visits | Commercial DD draft |
| 5–6 | Expert calls, customer interviews | QoE draft, Tax memo |
| 7–8 | Final analysis, issue resolution | Final DD reports |
| 9–10 | SPA negotiation, closing conditions | Investment Committee memo |
Recommendations for Investors
- Do not skimp on DD: The cost is 0.5–1% of deal size but protects against catastrophic mistakes
- Integrate workstreams: Commercial and Financial DD should be aligned
- Challenge management: Independently verify assumptions
- Focus on risks: DD should identify not only upside, but also downside
- Document everything: For future disputes and investment committee
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