Module VIII·Article IV·~1 min read

Shiller CAPE

Global Equities (Developed Markets)

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Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE, Shiller P/E) — the ratio of price to average earnings over 10 years, adjusted for inflation.

Interpretation of CAPE

ValueMarket Assessment
< 15Market is cheap (rarely)
15-20Fair valuation
20-25Moderately expensive
> 30Bubble (1929, 2000, 2021)

Application

CAPE predicts long-term returns (10 years), not short-term ones.
High CAPE = low expected return.

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