Module II·Article IV·~1 min read
Errors of Team Decision-Making: Groupthink and Escalation of Commitment
Decision-Making Under Pressure
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Groupthink: When the Team Thinks as One
Irving Janis described groupthink using examples of catastrophic decisions (Bay of Pigs, Chernobyl): highly cohesive groups under pressure make irrational decisions, sacrificing critical thinking for the sake of consensus.
Symptoms of groupthink:
- Illusion of invulnerability ("we can handle it")
- Collective rationalization (ignoring warnings)
- Pressure on dissenters ("you're not a team player")
- Self-censorship (group members keep doubts to themselves)
- Illusion of unanimity
Risk factors: high cohesiveness, authoritarian leader, isolation from external opinions, high stress.
Escalation of Commitment
We continue to invest in a failing project—because of resources already sunk (sunk cost), public commitments (hard to admit a mistake), or the need to save face.
Classic examples: policy escalation in the Vietnam War, corporate mergers that proceeded against all signals. In business—projects that "cannot be stopped because too much has already been spent."
Antidotes
Against groupthink:
- "Red team" (designated critic)
- Anonymous collection of opinions before discussion
- Leader does not voice opinion first
- Involvement of external experts
- Dividing large decisions into smaller ones with interim reviews
Against escalation:
- Set "stop-points" in advance (kill criteria): "If X happens, we stop"
- Separate those who made the original decision from those who evaluate continuation
- Clearly distinguish between sunk and future costs
Practical Assignment
Analyze the most recent group decision in your organization. (1) Were there symptoms of groupthink? (2) Was there escalation of commitment? (3) What decision-making process would have reduced risks?
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